Welcome to 2026 and economic growth

Written By Kim Manunui

With Reserve Bank expectations for economic growth increasing from -0.5% in Sept 2025 to 2.8% in March 2027 to climb through 3.1% in 2028 and inflation to fall from 3% to 2.2% then 2.0% and economists stating ‘this is what the markets have priced in’, we’re back in positive territory and heading in the right direction.

To that end going forward, interest rates are likely settled with a small chance of minor easing in Feb but tipped to increase slightly by years end following the Aust example.

This is likely to usher in a shift toward looking at longer term fixed mortgage rates, no doubt there will be plenty of commentary around that as we progress throughout the year.

So here we are … with the worst behind us and if we had a crystal ball we would say after 2025 being a year of settling, then 2026 will be a year of steady growth, the curtain raiser leading into 2027 being a game of two halves with the second half the more dynamic coinciding with the Rugby World Cup in Oz and expected tourism uplift here and 2028 seeing some proper economic prosperity through 2029 and beyond … it takes about that long for the economic machine to crank its way back up again with all being well in the world which is questionable in itself.

No one can really tell for sure but cycle wise we’re poised for growth and economic confidence ahead, provided geopolitical factors don’t rain on our parade and the upcoming election outcome supports continued economic growth, importantly there are no signs of any impediment to sustainable growth in the economy going forward.

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Kim Manunui

Hi, I’m Kim and I work with a great team to help individuals, as well as small and not so small businesses get their message, product and services to the world using digital media and creating wonderful websites that don’t cost the earth.

I was born in Canada, and grew up around Vancouver and the mountains of British Columbia. My love of pristine environments led me to New Zealand and eventually to the mountains, lakes and rivers of the central North Island which is home. My family’s heritage is here, and it’s from here that Korio traverses the planet.

The digital world is never static and neither are we.

And I say ‘we’ because I work with an awesome group of talented people who I gather together as required to complete a project.  Whatever your business, not-for-profit or individual needs are we gather the best team to get the job done.

Collaboratively we are creative, share sustainable values and work hard for great outcomes because that’s the buzz of satisfaction that drives us.

If you have an audience and market to reach, we can make that happen. Creative design, words that work and smart behind the scenes stuff that cuts through the online noise. We’ll design your website and then build it. We’ll manage the content as well as all your hosting needs. We can handle your online advertising so you get noticed,
and we’ll manage your social media presence so you get the clicks, likes and engagement to grow your business. All within the budget you set, because none of this needs to cost the earth.  And the job doesn’t stop when your website goes live. We are your virtual business partner.

https://www.korio.co.nz
Next

The OCR and the year ahead.